Maphakathi-noMeyi 2026, ingqungquthela yase-China-yase-US kanye nokubonisana okwalandela kwezomnotho nezohwebo kwafinyelela ukuvumelana kwezigaba, okuphawula ukuguquka kobudlelwane bezomnotho nezohwebo base-US besuka-ekuphakameni okukhulu kuya esigabeni esisha esibonakala ngokuphathwa kwezingxabano, ukukhululeka okulinganiselwe, kanye nokulindela okuzinzile. Irabha ye-silicone enegwebu (ebhekwa njengezinye izingxenye zemishini yenjoloba eshisiwe kanye namathuluzi), njengesigaba somkhiqizo oyinhloko embonini yokucubungula ye-organic silicone deep-yaseShayina, inomkhondo wayo wokuhweba wangaphandle ohlobene eduze ne-Sino{7}}Izintengo ze-US, ukufinyelela kwemakethe, nokuhlelwa kabusha kwe-supply chain. Lo mzuliswano wokunciphisa uhwebo udlula nje ukuncishiswa kwentela; ilungisa kabusha isimo sokuthekelisa senjoloba ye-silicone enegwebu kubukhulu obune{9}}isakhiwo sentela, imibandela yokuhlukanisa, imikhawulo yokuthobelana, nokuncintisana kwezimboni{10}}kanjalo kuncishiswe iminyaka{11}}yezithiyo zengcindezi ephezulu kuyilapho kusheshisa ukugudluka komkhakha ukusuka kumasu "esikali{12} esiphansi{12}"{12}{12} "ukuthobela{14}}okuphezulu + isu lomhlaba jikelele."
I. Ukunemba Ekubhalweni Kwekhodi Nesilinganiso Sentela: Izici Zomthwalo Wentela e-China-I-US Trade Friction
I-silicone enegwebu ihlukaniswa ngokuthi Amasiko AseShayina "Ezinye izingxenye zemishini namathuluzi enziwe ngenjoloba eshisiwe (ngaphandle kwerabha eqinile)," iyunithi yezomthetho ingamakhilogremu. Ijabulela isilinganiso sesaphulelo sentela yokuthekelisa esingu-13%, inani-izinga lentela elengeziwe elingu-13%, kanye nenani lentela yokuthekelisa engu-0%, okuyenza ibe umkhiqizo werabha ocutshunguliwe ojulile{5}ojwayelekile. Ngaphansi Kwe-US Harmonized Tariff System (HTS), ihambisana nento 4016.99 "Eminye imikhiqizo yenjoloba engcolile" futhi sekuyisikhathi eside ifakiwe ohlwini lweSigaba 301 kuncike ezindlekweni ezengeziwe.
Ngaphambi kwalo mzuliswano wezingxoxo zokuthula, umthwalo wentela uwonke wokuthunyelwa kwenjoloba enwetshiwe ye-silicone eya e-United States wawuphezulu kakhulu:
I-United States{0}Ethandwa Kakhulu-I-Nation Basic Tariff: 8%
Intela eyengeziwe ngaphansi kwe-Athikili 301:25%
I-Athikili 122: Inkokhelo Yesikhashana: 10%
Amanye amaqoqo angaphansi kwezindleko ezilinganayo: isilinganiso sentela esihlanganisiwe esingu-5%–10%, nesilinganiso esiphezulu sifinyelela ku-43%, sibukela phansi kakhulu ukuncintisana okuyinhloko kwe-China "kobuholi obusezingeni + nezindleko-ukusebenza{4}}ukusebenza kahle," okuholela ekuphumeni okuphawulekayo maphakathi{5}}ukuya{6}kuye{6}okuhleleka okuphansi ukuya esifundeni esiseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia{7}njenge-India.
II. Izinzuzo eziqondile zalo mjikelezo wezingxoxo zohwebo zenjoloba ye-silicone enwetshiwe: amanani ancishisiwe, ukubuyiswa kwezindleko, nokubuyiselwa kwe-oda.
Ngaphansi Kohlaka Lwezomnotho Nezohwebo lwase-China-lwe-US Economic and Trade Framework oluphothulwe ngoMeyi 14,2026, uhlangothi lwase-US lususe u-95% wezintengo ezintsha ezibekwe ngemuva kuka-2025, lwamisa izinkokhiso zokujezisa ezingu-24% izinyanga ezingu-18, futhi lwahoxisa amanani entengo asele eSigaba 301. Leli lungiselelo liletha izinzuzo ezintathu eziqondile zokukhiqizwa kwe-silicone yegwebu:
Izinga lentela lilonke lehle kakhulu.
301: Kuzofakwa inkokhiso engu-25%, kanye nokuqaliswa kwesigaba{2}}sokuphuma ingxenye (kuzoqala ngoJuni kuya kuSepthemba)
Isigaba 122: I-10% yentela yesikhashana ifakiwe ohlwini lokukhansela.
Izinga lentela eliphelele langempela lehlisiwe lisuka ku-43% laya ebangeni elingu-8%–13%, libuyisela ngokuqondile ukuncintisana kwentengo kwaba ngaphezu kwama-30%.
Ingxabano yokuhlukaniswa ngezigaba isixazululiwe, futhi ukusebenza kahle kokukhishwa kwezimpahla ezithengiswayo sekuthuthukile. Isikhathi eside, imvelo engaqondakali "yezinto zenjoloba/ipulasitiki/eyinhlanganisela" iholele ekuhlukeni kwezigaba, izinguquko ezisheshayo zenani lentengo, namazinga aphezulu amasampula. Lo mzuliswano wezingxoxo usungule indlela yokwazisana yokuhlukaniswa kwekhodi ye-HS, uhlangothi lwase-US luvuma izimemezelo zase-China zezingxenye zenjoloba ezingcolile, okuholele ekwehleni kokuqina kokuhlolwa kanye nokwehla ngo-10%–15% ezindlekweni zokuvalelwa echwebeni.
Izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa ezikhuphukayo zihlala zizinzile, futhi inqubomgomo yokubuyiselwa kwentela iyaqhubeka.
Inhlanganisela ye-organosilicon eyinhloko (i-DMC, i-107 adhesive) ifakiwe ohlwini lokukhokhiswa intela, nezindleko ezikhuphukayo ezihlala zizinzile noma zibonisa ukwehla kancane.
Izinga lesaphulelo sentela yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe lisalokhu lingashintshile ku-13%, lisekela isamba senzuzo yebhizinisi kanye nokuvimbela ukuncintisana kwamanani aphansi.
Imiphumela: Phakathi-ukuya{1}}okuphansi{2}}ama-oda alahlekile ngaphambilini ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu{3}}njengalawo ama-seal emoto yamandla amasha, ama-photovoltaic buffers, nama-shock absorbers asebenza ekhaya{4}}abuye ngokushesha. Ukuthunyelwa kwe-United States e-Q3 2026 kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule ngo-20%–25% ngekota{9}}nge{10}}ikota.
III. Izinselelo Zesakhiwo Zisekhona:{1}}Izithiyo{1}}eziphezulu, Ukuthobelana Okuqinile, kanye Nokuncintisana Okuqinisiwe
Ukuncishiswa kwentela akusho ukukhululeka okuphelele kwemakethe; i-US iyaqhubeka nesu layo "elimaphakathi-lokukhulula{3}}lokuvikeleka okuphezulu" kwe-premium foam silicone, ebhekene nezinselele ezintathu ezivelele:
Izithiyo zokungena-ezinhlelweni zokusebenza eziphezulu: Ukuvalwa kwebhethri yemoto yamandla entsha, amabhafa e-semiconductor, kanye{1}nebanga lezokwelapha{1}i-foamed silicone (inani eliphezulu-imikhiqizo engeziwe,{3}}ephakeme{3}}iyaqhubeka nokubhekana nemikhawulo evela e-US ngokusebenzisa izindinganiso zobuchwepheshe, izithiyo zokunikeza izitifiketi, kanye nezibuyekezo ze-supply chain e-US{9}okuholela ekubuyekezweni okungaphansi kwe-5% kwe-US{9} ingxenye.
I-FDA iqinise izimfuneko zokuthobela imvelo: ukuthintana nokudla, imikhiqizo yezingane nengane, kanye nemikhiqizo yezokwelapha kufanele ithumele imibiko yokuhlolwa kwezinhlanganisela ze-silicone eziguquguqukayo (D4-D9), ukufuduka kwensimbi enzima, -nokuqina kwezinga lokushisa eliphezulu. Imikhiqizo -engathobeli izobhekana nokubanjwa noma ukucekelwa phansi ngokushesha, kuyilapho izindleko zokuyithobela zikhuphuka ngo-15%–20%.
Ukuqinisa ukuncintisana kwamazwe ngamazwe kushayela i-Southeast Asia ne-Mexico ukuthi ibambe isabelo sama-oda aphakathi-kuya{1}}kuya{1}}okuphansi{2}}ngokusebenzisa izinzuzo zawo ngezindleko eziphansi zabasebenzi, ukukhululwa kwentela yase-US-e-Mexico, kanye ne-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), ngaleyo ndlela kwenyusa amanani omhlaba.
IV. Izinzuzo Eziyingqayizivele kanye-Nendlela Yesu Yesikhathi Eside ye-China Foamed Silicone
Uma kuqhathaniswa nemikhiqizo esezingeni eliphezulu-yaseJalimane, i-American technology monopolies, kanye{1}}nokukhiqizwa kwenkontileka eshibhile e-Southeast Asia, i-foam silicone yase-China inezinzuzo ezine eziyingqayizivele:
Amandla okukhiqiza amakhulu kakhulu emhlabeni ahlanganiswe nochungechunge lwezimboni oluphelele: Kusukela ku-DMC yezinto ezingavuthiwe nezinamathelayo ezingu-107 ukuya ekugwebeni, ekubumbeni, nasekucubunguleni okujulile{1}}zonke izinqubo zilawulwa ngokuzimela, okuholela ezindlekweni eziphansi ngo-40% kunalezo zase-Europe naseMelika futhi zibe ngaphansi ngo-15% kunaseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia.
Ubuholi bemakethe + amanani athengekayo: Ngokusebenzisa isidingo esikhulu sasekhaya emikhakheni efana namandla amasha, ama-photovoltaics, izinto zikagesi zasendlini, nokunakekelwa kwezempilo, inkampani isungule ukuncintisana okuyinhloko ngokukhiqiza{1}}okukhulu, amanani ahlanganisiwe, nokulethwa okusheshayo.
Ukuvumelana nezimo okuqinile: Iyakwazi ukwenza ngokwezifiso ngokushesha imikhiqizo enobunzima obuhlukahlukene, amazinga okuqina, ukuncipha komlilo, kanye nezakhiwo ze-antibacterial, ebhekelela izimo ezihlukene zohlelo lokusebenza.
Ukuqina okuphezulu kwe-supply chain: Igcine izinga lokudiliva lingaphezulu kwama-95% ngisho nangesikhathi sobhubhane kanye nokuphazamiseka kokusebenza, okudlula kakhulu izimbangi zaphesheya kwezilwandle.
Siyibhizinisi le-silicone eliyigwebu elivela e-China, eliziqhenya ngamakhono aqinile e-R&D, futhi siyajabula ukukusebenzela.